Brazil’s candidate field for the October general elections is heading towards finalization in the coming weeks. The various political parties will close their statewide and federal lists throughout late July and early August and the official campaign period begins on August 16. The leading candidates continue to be the polarized duo of President Lula da Silva of the leftist Workers’ Party (PT) and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro of the conservative Liberal Party (PL). Both are unpopular with the Brazilian public for a number of structural reasons that seem almost impossible to erase. But there are a number of others running in the first round of balloting on October 4 and the general ennui of the top ranks begs the question: could an alternative candidate catch fire and up-end the race?
What is underneath?
To understand the opportunity for an alternative, let’s examine the weaknesses of the top two.
Lula’s Failed Third Term: After an unprecedented third shot at the presidency, Lula has very little to show for it. Gone is the sheen of economic growth and prosperity he called back to in his first two terms in 2002 and 2006. In its place is a massive general government fiscal deficit stuck around 7% to 8% of GDP—the largest in Latin America — which led the Central Bank to keep real interest rates high and stymied economic growth. Lula’s government isn’t alone in the generalized debt misery, as households are also struggling under high indebtedness in the face of inflation concerns and stubbornly low wages.
Lula promised big public investments when running in 2022 but they didn’t materialize and the huge domestic debt pile (82% of GDP) means there is little chance of seeing them in a fourth term. The economic letdown has cost him dearly among younger voters that made up a big part of his razor-thin margin of victory in 2022 - they are abandoning him now. Any opponent can ask Brazilians if their families are better off now than they were four years ago, and the answer won’t be affirmative.
More still, crime and insecurity are the number one concern for Brazilian voters according to Ipsos — 49% rank it as their main issue. Lula has never connected with voters on crime, offering excuses and rambling attempts at intellectualizing the fear that most Brazilians feel when walking in the streets of the 26 state capital cities. It can become maddening to listen to him. This will remain a primary point of vulnerability for the incumbent president and help keep his approval ratings underwater.
Flavio’s Failure to Launch: The oldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro emerged as the clan’s less abrasive, presumably more acceptable member to unite all factions of the right. He has fallen short of expectations on a number of fronts.
First off, the right is not united behind him. His less-than-charismatic style doesn’t fire up the bolsonarista base, while his family name alone stirs unease among the non-bolsonarista right. The clan’s erratic and unpredictable reputation among current and former allies has dampened enthusiasm for reuniting the coalition that ran with Jair and saw Lula pull out a victory. Flavio also has high negatives among Brazilian women, who remain solidly in Lula’s camp. Attempts to leverage former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro’s strong appeal among evangelical women have cratered after the two entered a bitter, public spat over candidate lists that has opened a family rift.
Michelle had wanted to be the presidential candidate herself, not her son, and much of the PL leadership agreed. But Jair and his sons had other ideas. The resentment is lingering more intensely as Flavio has found himself splashed by the widening Banco Master scandal, at least through poorly timed personal associations and not actual illegality. The PL convention will seal Flavio’s nomination on July 25 at its convention, and as of this writing Michelle may not even attend as she has resigned as head of its women’s wing. None of this will help Flavio with female voters.
However, he is attracting more young men to his campaign, both with his economic critique of Lula and promises to crack down on organized crime. It’s unlikely this dynamic will gel enough to offset his high negatives among women of all ages, and any further scandals will slow his attempts to peel away votes he will need to win in a second round.
The Others and Their Dynamics: There are two other candidates vying for attention in the opposition that are feeding off Bolsonaro’s top vulnerabilities within the center-right. Their success or failure will signal how well or poorly Flavio may fare in a runoff against Lula, or whether he is vulnerable to be overtaken in the first.
Renan Santos is a young and exuberant outsider on the right, leading the emerging Mission Party, an outgrowth of the libertarian-right youth activist Free Brazil Movement (MBL). He is an anti-corruption militant, much in the spirit of MBL’s massive street actions in the run-up to the 2016 impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff (PT). While he only polls in single digits nationally, he holds an astounding plurality of nearly 40% of voters aged 16 to 24.
Where Flavio is mild and milquetoast, Santos is all fire and brimstone in the style of the bolsonarista base. He inveighs against the establishment and voices the anger and frustration of those who feel both cheated out of the prosperity they strive for and looked down upon by the elites who quietly despise them. While Santos has little to no chance of overtaking Flavio, his presence is a constant reminder to many on the right of everything Flavio is not going to be in this campaign.
The biggest political party in terms of reach and elected officials is the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the anchor of the unaligned “big center” known as the Centrão. Its candidate is former Goias state governor Ronaldo Caiado, who still retains an approval rating of around 85% among his former constituents. Caiado is an old school center-right politician straight from central casting, with a booming voice and a gift of oratory none of his rivals possess. PSD founder and party boss Gilberto Kassab - perhaps the most powerful kingmaker in Brazilian politics today — chose to launch a “pure blood” candidacy with Caiado after clearly analyzing the weaknesses of the Flavio vs. Lula match-up and eschewing an early alliance.
What sets Caiado apart is not only his style and demeanor, but the PSD itself. It has the national, statewide and local infrastructure to mount a serious national bid in the first round, particularly as its core allies in state and municipal governments are increasingly willing to negotiate pacts in the October 4 first round. The Centrão never goes for the top slot in the usual presidential election year, choosing instead to leverage its power in the first round to land the vice presidential slot on what it decides will be the winning ticket in the runoff and then split the duties and spoils of governing.
By launching a “pure blood” race with Caiado, Kassab has maximized his options. If Flavio continues to trail Lula in the polls, Kassab will be in a position to offer to help Flavio at a steep price. At the same time, if Flavio begins to truly unwind between August and November, only Caiado will have the machine muscle behind him to make a real go at overcoming him and making the runoff instead. It is all purely theoretical at this moment, but the structural weaknesses of the top two seem to correspond to the structural muscle of the PSD more than in any previous elections.
Our take:
I’m not going to make any predictions yet, as it’s still too early. The trend is unmistakable, however. Among the two weak and unloved top contenders, Lula has the advantage over Flavio Bolsonaro today. That has brought a bit of cynical resignation among much of the electorate who would rather not have either on the ballot.
With the advantage of women voters alone, Lula seems hard to beat if Flavio is his runoff opponent. The voters also won’t castigate Lula in October for all the massive and somewhat abstract public debt he is saddling the country with. The misery on that point will come after the election, of course.
But as the incumbent, President Lula da Silva remains vulnerable. His luck has been having a Bolsonaro as his only perceived threat. I have kept a close eye on Kassab and the PSD since the run-up to the municipal elections in 2024. He played his hand deftly that year and won the biggest share of city halls of any party, consolidating a formidable national machine. He has now positioned himself to not only be the usual kingmaker, but maybe even a regent under the right circumstances.
The center-right will likely tighten its grip on Congress and many states around Brazil in the first round, making the PSD an indispensable partner for either Lula or Flavio, whichever wins. But on the off chance Flavio implodes before the first round, Caiado is the best positioned candidate to exploit it. Caiado’s performance in the presidential debates will make or break this possibility, as he is little known outside of Goias and the PSD will receive less than half of the public campaign funding that the PL will receive, and about two-thirds of the PT’s haul.
Conventional wisdom still tends to reign in Brazilian presidential politics, and a Centrão candidate getting elected President is a generally unfathomable notion. But Jair Bolsonaro came out of nowhere in 2018 because the field was big and weak. The timing was perfect. Stranger things have happened, and the cake of this election is not yet baked.
In Brazil we (ought not to) trust.